The revolutions in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) provide an historic opportunity to meet the aspirations of a people long denied political freedom and economic opportunity. Economic modernization is key to building a stronger foundation for prosperity and showing people the fruits of democratic change. The people of the region will choose their own paths to democracy and prosperity, with policies and programs that suit their circumstances. http://venitism.blogspot.com
That process may take years, as was the case in the transitions of Central and Eastern Europe. From the beginning of this process and along the way, the United States will offer its support for economic modernization and development to those making the transition to democracy.
The countries of the Middle East and North Africa are diverse societies with diverse characteristics and economies. The region of over 400 million people contains a group of countries that export 18 million barrels a day of oil as well as a group that is dependent on oil imports from their neighbors. Saudi Arabia's $440 billion economy is more than 14 times that of Yemen. What these countries share is untapped potential, that if unlocked could provide broader economic opportunities for their people. http://venitism.blogspot.com
Shahira Amin points out young activists in Benghazi are using every means possible to express themselves. The graffifi on the walls, the launch of new radio stations and internet TV channels the public debates about their future, the increased volunteerism and political activism are all manifestations of their newfound freedom.
In Benghazi's Revolution Square, citizens gather nightly to recite poetry, make public speeches, sing revolutionary songs or simply exchange anecdotes. The square has been transformed into a Hyde Park-style Speakers' Corner, where young men and women can vent their hatred of an autocratic leader who for decades, stifled all forms of free expression and creativity.
Mainly three factors predict a revolution: the rapid increase in literacy, particularly among women, a falling birthrate and a significant decline in the widespread custom of endogamy, or marriage between first cousins. This shows that the Arab societies were on a path toward cultural and mental modernization, in the course of which the individual becomes much more important as an autonomous entity. This development ends with the transformation of the political system, a spreading wave of democratization and the conversion of subjects into citizens. Although this follows a global trend, it can take some time.
Amin notes many young Libyans, feeling they now have a stake in their own country, volunteer to direct traffic, patrol the streets or collect donations to help casualties of the uprising or the martyrs' families. Meanwhile, civil society organisations devoted to causes ranging from the promotion of women's rights to environmental protection are rapidly mushrooming in the new Libya.
The desire to end years of isolation is also evident with the flags of friendly nations flying high over key bridges and in front of government buildings. It's a small gesture of appreciation for the support afforded the rebels but also a signal of the Libyan people's keenness to join the international fold.
Amin says much of the graffiti on the streets pokes fun at Gaddafi but some of the messages also offer warnings against tribalism and religious extremism, likely challenges that Gaddafi threatened would confront any future government in Libya. And while the One Libya slogan is highly popular among the rebels, sceptics point out that it remains just that: a mere slogan. The divide between regime loyalists and rebel forces may continue long after the country is free from Gaddafi's authoritarian grip.
The impression we have at the moment is of a breathtaking acceleration of history, similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall, in 1989. At this point, no one can say what the liberal movements in these countries will turn into. Revolutions often end up as something different from what their supporters proclaim at the beginning. Democracies are fragile systems that require deep historic roots.
It took almost a century from the time of the French Revolution in 1789 until the democratic form of government, in the form of the Third Republic, finally took shape after France had lost a war against the Germans in 1871. In the interim, there was Napoleon, the royalist restoration and the Second Empire under Napoleon III, the little one, as Victor Hugo said derisively.
Amin points out tribal differences are deep-rooted in Libya. Tribal leaders may fail to bridge existing divisions. Tensions may boil over if there's a continued security vacuum. And with religion playing a significant role in conservative Libyan society, there is a possible spread of religious extremism. This may take place despite the creation of a special commission by the National Transitional Council to counter the influence of fundamentalists and to promote liberal ideas.
The Islamists did not play a role in Tunisia and in Egypt the course of events seems to have taken the Muslim Brotherhood by surprise. The Islamists are now trying to organize as political parties within a pluralistic system. These freedom movements are not anti-Western. On the contrary, in Libya, the rebels called for more support from NATO. The Arab revolution has set aside the cliche of a cultural and religious uniqueness that supposedly makes Islam incompatible with democracy and supposedly destines Muslims to be ruled by at best enlightened despots.
Tackling the humanitarian challenges, however, is currently the priority goal for the NTC. Tripoli's two million residents face shortages in water, fuel and medicine, which, combined with regular power cuts and lack of proper sanitation, are creating dire conditions. If such problems are left unresolved, they could become life threatening, warn humanitarian agencies.
Amin points out that providing security in the newly liberated areas is another huge challenge. Despite the challenges, many Libyans are hopeful that their country can transcend the difficulties and successfully make the democratic transition.
But this can only happen, they say, if Libya gets the support it badly needs from the international community; support that has been forthcoming from some Western countries with a vested interest in supporting oil-rich Libya. Government structures, which were non-existent under Gaddafi, are being formed, new political parties and civil society organisations are emerging, and there's already talk of elections being organised.
The Arab Spring consists of a mishmash of anti-government demonstrations triggered in most cases by police over-reaction and fuelled by economic hard times (Tunisia and Egypt), ethnic and religious tensions (Syria and Bahrain), tribal rivalries (Libya and Yemen), and by growing public perception that Planetarch Uncle Sam is tired of the Middle East. http://venitism.blogspot.com
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