Trouble In Libya, MLK Day, Rebellion Increases In Middle East
January 16th, 2011 Before I write more about the Middle East, I want to remember Martin Luther King. Yesterday was the anniversary of his birth. I was in 8th grade when he was assassinated. I had not been following him that closely, at the time I was mostly focused on the Vietnam War which I had just decided to oppose. King was an inspiring speaker and over the years as I have heard many of his speeches on Pacifica Radio, I have become increasingly impressed with his vision and courage. He knew how to play upon ruling class fears to pressure for benefits for the people without having to resort to violence. On the other hand he was perfectly aware of the fact that violence in the streets gave impetus to the cause of social justice.
Reports are coming out that there is unrest in Libya. That makes sense, people are fed up with dictators and want to lead decent lives. The question is will these revolts lead to more open societies where the will of the people is respected and reflected in the governing bodies that emerge or will they represent the more conservative elements of Islam with the primitive social relations that reflect more medieval values than modern ones? Whatever emerges, if it is not some power play by elites affiliated with local repressive armed forces aided by the CIA, then it might represent the will of the people.
It has long been my contention that peaceful protest does not by itself bring about social or political change. There has to be the threat of serious violence, with the concurrent loss of the support of the armed forces of the nation that brings about change in countries where the government reflects the will of an elite minority.
Here in the USA it was the civil unrest of the 1960's that led to many of the social changes with welfare legislation etc, and it has been the lack of pressure from below that has allowed the increased income disparity in the USA and the virtual corporate take over of the country. A lack of civic unrest and declining union activity has let to a vacuum among the working classes which has led to an opening for an American equivalent to the Islamic Movement in Muslim countries. It is the Tea Party and the religious right which have captured the frustration of many Americans who are watching their living standards decline or come under pressure as the capitalist elites try to squeeze more profit out of the economic system.
Lets see what emerges as people all around the world are no longer willing to simply wait for justice. The repressive forces represented by the dictators, Israel and the USA are trying to figure out how to contain this revolt. They will probably offer bread and circuses as a carrot and increased repression as the stick. Will that be enough? Let us hope not.
From Al-bab.com
Trouble in Libya
Just two days after the overthrow of President Ben Ali in Tunisia, videos are circulating of disturbances in neighbouring Libya. Needless to say, this is causing a good deal of excitement on Twitter.
Colonel Gaddafi has been in power for almost 42 years, compared with a mere 23 for Ben Ali. In his second-to-last speech as president, Ben Ali referred to Gaddafi as "my dear brother" and thanked him for support. In a speech reported by the official Libyan news agency on Saturday, Gaddafi reciprocated:
"I am very pained by what is happening in Tunisia … Tunisia now lives in fear … What is this for? To change Zine al-Abidine? Hasn't he told you he would step down after three years? Be patient for three years …"
Almanara, a Libyan opposition website which appears to have Islamist leanings, has posted three videos of protesters in the city of al-Bayda. There are also a few more on YouTube and al-Jazeera has a report in Arabic.
The facts are still rather unclear, but Almanara says the demonstrators clashed with security forces, threw stones at a government building and set fire to one of its offices. The protesters were demanding "decent housing and dignified life", according to the website. Provision of housing appears to be the main issue and there are reports of people taking over apartments and squatting in them.
Contrary to what many people imagine, protests and even large-scale riots are not uncommon in the Arab countries. They occur mostly in marginalised regions or among marginalised sections of the population and, normally, they pose no great threat to the regime.
Last month – one day before the trouble started in Tunisia – there was a Sunni-versus-Shia riot in the Saudi city of Medina. Eight hundred people are said to have taken part; windows were smashed and dozens of cars damaged or destroyed. Outside the kingdom, hardly anyone noticed.
Earlier this month, Maan in Jordan witnessed several days of
disturbances which were attributed to a labour dispute and/or inter-tribal violence.
In Yemen, meanwhile, the regime faces almost permanent armed rebellion from one quarter or another – though it somehow survives.
The tricky part is judging the significance of such protests when they occur. One test is whether they are outside the norm for the country concerned: ten dead in a tribal battle with the Yemeni army would be no big deal, but the same thing in Oman, next door, would be hugely significant.
Applying the "Tunisia test", the following are also useful pointers for distinguishing minor from major protests:
1. Disturbances sustained for more than a few days.
2. Disturbances steadily growing in strength and spreading to other areas, especially those areas not traditionally regarded as marginalised.
3. Focus of protests shifting strongly from the original grievances to a more generalised critique of the regime.
4. Regime starting to show signs of inability to reassert control.
Posted by Brian Whitaker, 16 Jan 2011.
http://www.al-bab.com/blog/2011/blog1101b.htm#trouble_in_libya
From Media Line
Unrest Threatens Middle East as Food Prices Climb Amid High Unemployment
Written by David Rosenberg & Ben Peim
Published Monday, January 10, 2011
The deadly rioting that has gripped Algeria and Tunisia in recent days may portend unrest elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa, amid a potentially combustible combination of rising food prices and the region's chronically high levels of unemployment, analysts say.
In Tunisia, the unrest was sparked by the suicide of a street merchant December 17 that pointed up the lack of jobs and opportunities. In Algeria the disturbances were sparked by higher prices for basic food items, including milk, oil and sugar, but analysts said joblessness was also a factor.
"These can be contagious and cross borders," Magda Kandil, executive director of the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies in Cairo, told The Media Line. "The formula that brought about these riots could be in the works in the Egyptian economy. There's high unemployment, there is a rise of cost of living. People feel government should do more to help them out, especially in getting more jobs."
Boosted by higher oil prices and government spending, the Middle East is set for another year of strong economic growth in 2011. But the pace isn't sufficient enough to keep up with the region's rapidly growing population, leaving unemployment and poverty in its wake.
Thus, when food prices start climbing, the Middle East is especially vulnerable. In the past two decades, the region has been shaken three times by waves of food rioting, most recently in 2008 when prices spiked higher before recession tamped down global demand.
Now, prices are climbing again. The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization reported January 5 the its global food price index hit a record high last month, exceeding the pre-crash peak of 2008. Its food price index, which takes into account the average prices of staples including meat, dairy, cereals and cooking oil, was up 25% from the same month in 2009.
Even the wealthier oil-exporting countries are nervous about ensuring enough food reaches the dinner table. The Federal National Council of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is scheduled to meet Tuesday to discuss the rise in food prices. The Gulf News quoted Khalifa Abdullah Bin Howaiden, a member of the council, as saying the prices of certain food items shot up as much as 500%.
The UAE is wealthy, but price hikes of that much will pinch the pocketbooks of lower- and middle-income consumers. The Gulf imports 85% of its basic food requirements and that makes it highly sensitive to fluctuations in the global market. To mitigate this, oil-rich governments have been buying land in Africa and elsewhere to grow crops to feed their populations.
But the non-oil Middle East faces the greatest danger from higher food prices because of higher unemployment and lower incomes.
The average unemployment rate among non-oil countries in the Middle East was 11% in 2008, more than the 9.8% rate in the United States at the height of the last recession. The International Monetary Fund said in an October report that these countries will need to create 18.5 million full-time positions over the next decade if they are to absorb all the unemployed and generate jobs for new graduates.
To do that, their economies will have to grow by a challenging 6.5% annually, the IMF estimated. That's two percentage points more than they have managed over the past decade.
"Unemployment and especially under-employment among youth – university graduates – is quite high in Tunisia, in Jordan and Egypt," Ibrahim Saif, secretary-general of the Economic And Social Council of Jordan and an economist at the University of Jordan told The Media Line.
"It's not just double digit unemployment, but that it's concentrated among the younger generations, people joining the labor market for the first time."
Ironically, even though they have been struck by unrest, Tunisia and Algeria are better off than many of their Middle East and North African neighbors.
The World Economic Forum praises Tunisia's "efficient" government in its latest Global Competitiveness Report as well as the good quality of its education and efficient markets for goods and services. The International Monetary Fund expects the economy is to grow 4.8% this year, but puts the jobless rate is above 13%. Among young people the rate is higher, and many of those with jobs are overqualified.
In Algeria, with 12.2 billion barrels in oil reserves, the IMF expects gross domestic product to grow 4% this year, but unemployment is forecast to rise to 10.8%.
But Kandil said the governments of the region would have to pull back from price subsidies, which encourage waste and deprive other sectors of the economy, like schools and health, the funds they need. "Everybody enjoys subsidies, whether they need them or not," she added.
To solve the food crisis, Saif said the governments of the region will have to adjust their sights and focus on agricultural development instead of the more glamorous infrastructure and telecommunications projects. The education systems should turn out high tech farmers while regulations need to change to making farming a profitable business.
"Labor productivity in agricultural sector is the lowest in the world," Saif told The Media Line." Only people who fail in school go into farming."
http://www.themedialine.org/news/news_detail.asp?NewsID=31065
From M & C News
Anti-government protests in Jordan continue
Jan 16, 2011, 17:45 GMT
Amman - Hundreds of Jordanians demonstrated Sunday in front of the parliament demanding improved living conditions and calling on the government to resign.
The protesters, who mainly belonged to the Islamic-led opposition parties and trade unions, raised placards and chanted slogans calling on the government of Prime Minister Samir Rifai to step down.
Several parliamentarians joined the demonstrators, witnesses said.
The protesters also urged amendments to election law, which they said produced a lower house that did not properly represent the people after parliamentary elections on November 9.
They praised the Tunisian uprising that forced President Zine Al Abidine ben Ali to flee the country last week.
In a parallel move, at least 11 parliamentarians signed a petition urging the government to resign, accusing it of failing to address worsening economic conditions, including rising prices of staple goods and fuel, parliamentary sources said.
http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/middleeast/news/article_1612129.php/Anto-government-protests-in-Jordan-continue
From Gulf News
Netanyahu uses Tunisia to cast doubts over Middle East peace deal
`Tunisian unrest highlights an important issue regarding a possible Middle East peace treaty,' Netanyahu says
By Habib Toumi, Bureau Chief
Published: 18:30 January 16, 2011
Manama: Israel's prime minister is using the massive street protests in Tunisia that ousted the country's president to cast doubts over a peace treaty in the Middle East.
"The Tunisian unrest highlights an important issue regarding a possible Middle East peace treaty," Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been regularly accused by Palestinians of evading peace negotiations, said.
"There is doubt whether or not such an agreement would be followed by all sides in the long run in view of the pervasive political instability in the region. We don't know if a peace agreement would be respected and so any peace deal would have to include on-the-ground security arrangements," Netanyahu said, quoted by Israeli daily Haaretz.
Popular protests over corruption and unemployment forced President Zine Al Abidine Bin Ali to flee the country on Friday afternoon after 23 years of iron-fisted rule.
However, Netanyahu told his cabinet on Sunday that the events in Tunisia were an example of "how unstable Israel's region is."
"There are several centres of instability in our region and we hope that peace and security return to the region," he said.
http://gulfnews.com/news/region/palestinian-territories/netanyahu-uses-tunisia-to-cast-doubts-over-middle-east-peace-deal-1.747308
From Haaretz.com
Published 22:00 16.01.11
Latest update 22:00 16.01.11
Hezbollah chief: Lebanon PM rejected compromise under U.S. pressure
Nasrallah slams caretaker PM Hariri for refusing to reject international tribunal into his father's death, which is expected to implicate members of Hezbollah.
By Avi Issacharoff and Reuters
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah condemned caretaker Prime Minsiter Saad Hariri on Sunday for rejecting a proposed Saudi-Syrian compromise with Hezbollah due to pressure from the United States.
Nasrallah further slammed Hariri for not accepting a compromise between the two Lebanese factions, which demanded that Hariri announce that Lebanon would cease funding an international tribunal investigating the death of his father, former president Rafik Hariri, which may link Hezbollah to his death. By rejecting it, Hariri would have undermined the panel's legitimacy in the eyes of the Lebanese public.
The Hezbollah leader claimed that the two factions have already reached an agreement in which Lebanon will reject the findings of the tribunal, but then Hariri left for a series of meeting in the United States where he allegedly changed his mind due to U.S. pressure and stated that he could not agree to the compromise.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/hezbollah-chief-lebanon-pm-rejected-compromise-under-u-s-pressure-1.337391
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